Oil Algos Confused After Huge Crude Build, Record Production, & OPEC Demand Cut

Oil Algos Confused After Huge Crude Build, Record Production, & OPEC Demand Cut

Having briefly dropped back below $50 after API reported a significantly bigger than expected crude inventory build, WTI has roared higher this morning on ever-optimistic hopes that Covid-19’s impact has peaked and utterly disregarding OPEC’s slashing of its oil demand outlook for 2020.

“Risk sentiment is dominating the market and probably helping oil prices today,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.

“It seems the market thinks the worst is over, though time will tell.”

But, we suspect that mysterious ramp will disappear fast if official EIA data confirms API’s big builds…

API

  • Crude +6.0mm (+3.0mm exp)

  • Cushing +1.3mm (+2.3mm exp)

  • Gasoline +1.1mm (+500k exp)

  • Distillates -2.3mm (-600k exp)

DOE

  • Crude  (+3.0mm exp)

  • Cushing  (+2.3mm exp)

  • Gasoline  (+500k exp)

  • Distillates  (-600k exp)

Analysts expected another crude build in the last week (the third in a row) and DOE did not disappoint with a huge 7.459mm crude build – the most since the start of November…